Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
